Source Authority Register
This register defines which sources and quality states are allowed to feed decision-grade trade analytics and future regime-aware copilot outputs.
It is a preparatory artifact for ENG-5253. It does not enforce backend or UI gates yet. It records the intended authority policy so Gordon, trading, operations, and engineering can review the assumptions before implementation.
Core Rule
Decision-grade outputs require explicit source authority.
No mark, P&L value, execution-quality metric, or copilot warning should appear
more authoritative than the data source and quality state allow.
The dashboard may show exploratory or model-estimated values if they are visibly labelled, but those values must not be labelled as realized P&L, sourced execution quality, or verified outcome attribution.
Derivative-equivalent identity and proxy mapping are defined separately in Derivative Identity And Proxy Mapping. Source authority only decides whether a mapped identity and source quality can support a displayed metric.
Authority Levels
| Authority level | Meaning | Allowed in decision-grade aggregates? | Display rule |
|---|---|---|---|
direct_source | Observed from an approved source for the exact traded instrument, timestamp, horizon, or settlement event. | Yes, when fresh and complete. | Display normally with source and timestamp. |
approved_proxy | Uses an explicitly approved proxy such as BTC regime context for MSTR/COIN opportunity backdrop. | Only for the approved context family. | Display with proxy label and confidence penalty. |
estimated_model | Derived from a model, theoretical surface, intrinsic value, stale interpolation, or fallback estimate. | No, unless a future decision explicitly allows an estimated-only aggregate. | Label as estimated and exclude from sourced aggregates by default. |
stale_source | Direct source exists but is outside the freshness tolerance. | No for execution-quality or P&L aggregates. | Show stale state or suppress from sourced aggregate. |
pending | Horizon has not matured or job has not completed. | No. | Display pending, not zero. |
unavailable | Required source input is absent. | No. | Display blank/no-data, not zero. |
unsupported | Current system or provider cannot support the instrument, contract type, or metric. | No. | Display unsupported with reason. |
not_entitled | Provider or API entitlement does not allow the requested source lookup. | No. | Display as entitlement/source-access gap. |
needs_review | Mapping or source result is ambiguous and needs human review. | No. | Withhold decision-grade output. |
Metric Authority Matrix
| Metric family | Decision-grade authority requirement | Current allowed source state | Explicitly disallowed | Pending decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Execution marks | Fresh bid/ask/mid or mark for the exact traded option contract near execution time. | Partial Amberdata TradFi level-1 coverage for MSTR/COIN standard-root rows and explicitly labelled adjusted-standard fallback rows. | BTC option quotes, BTC proxy liquidity, model marks, stale quotes, or missing quotes presented as fill quality. | Confirm authoritative execution quote source: Amberdata, Alpha, broker/OMS, OPRA, OptionMetrics, or another vendor. |
| Execution liquidity | Same traded contract, with bid/ask, spread, quote age, and ideally contract OI/volume. | Fresh bid/ask can support partial liquidity. Volume/OI remain unavailable unless provider returns explicit fields. | Substituting BTC OI, BTC volume, or broad market backdrop for MSTR/COIN contract liquidity. | Confirm source for traded-contract OI and volume. |
| Forward marks | Sourced mark for the same traded contract at 1d, 7d, 30d, or another approved horizon. | Partial persisted forward marks where sourced quotes exist. Pending/unavailable states are excluded. | Treating missing marks as zero P&L; using estimates as sourced marks. | Confirm authoritative forward mark source and horizon policy. |
| Terminal or expiry marks | Approved close, settlement, broker/PMS mark, Alpha realized outcome, or sourced terminal option quote near expiry. | Terminal option quotes may be displayed as sourced terminal marks if clearly labelled; they are not realized P&L. | Model intrinsic value presented as settlement or realized P&L. | Confirm preferred terminal source and whether terminal quotes are sufficient for outcome attribution. |
| Realized P&L | Accounting, PMS, broker statement, Alpha realized P&L field, settlement record, or validated lifecycle accounting approved by the business. | Not sourced. Must remain unavailable. | Derived lifecycle cashflow presented as authoritative realized P&L without validation; model estimates. | Confirm authoritative realized-P&L source and lifecycle grouping policy. |
| Model-estimated marks | Explicit model output with method, inputs, and assumptions. | Allowed only as exploratory/model-lab style output. | Estimated value included in sourced P&L, hit-rate, execution-quality, or realized-P&L aggregates by default. | Decide whether estimates should appear at all, and where they are excluded. |
| Opportunity/regime context | Dashboard market context at trade time, with source freshness and proxy mapping. | BTC-linked context is acceptable for current MSTR/COIN opportunity backdrop when labelled as proxy. | Treating proxy context as traded-contract execution evidence. | Confirm proxy context policy for future portfolios and SMA trades. |
| Trade-level smile richness | Surface data for the traded instrument, tenor, strike/moneyness, and delta bucket, or approved proxy method. | Not sourced for current Alpha MSTR/COIN trade rows. | Stamping BTC smile richness onto MSTR/COIN trade rows without approved method. | Decide whether to source MSTR/COIN smiles or approve a proxy methodology. |
| Copilot accident-avoidance warnings | Regime/surface evidence, conditional-vs-vanilla gap, source-quality state, and confidence/trust state. | Preparatory only. Warnings should be explanatory until thresholds are approved. | Strong warning language that ignores missing source authority or mixed thesis. | Confirm confidence threshold and whether warnings can appear before P&L is complete. |
Required Metadata
Every decision-grade or exploratory value should carry enough metadata for the UI and docs to explain it.
| Field | Required for | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
authority_level | All sourced, proxy, estimated, and missing values. | One of the authority levels in this register. |
quality_state | All displayed metrics. | Fresh/available, proxy, estimated, stale, pending, unavailable, unsupported, not entitled, or needs review. |
source_name | All sourced or estimated values. | Provider, system, model, or manual source. |
source_timestamp | All point-in-time market values. | Timestamp of source observation. |
target_timestamp | Execution and forward/terminal marks. | Trade execution time, horizon time, or expiry/settlement time being evaluated. |
time_delta_minutes | Execution and forward/terminal marks. | Difference between target and source observation. |
instrument_identity_status | Trade-level metrics. | Exact, approved proxy, adjusted fallback, unmapped, unsupported, or needs review. |
missing_fields | Any non-available value. | Required inputs that prevented direct-source output. |
exclusion_reason | Aggregates. | Why a row was excluded from sourced aggregate denominator. |
calculation_version | Derived metrics. | Deterministic version label for the calculation. |
Aggregate Rules
Aggregates must make their denominators visible.
| Aggregate | Include | Exclude by default |
|---|---|---|
| Fill-vs-mid average | Fresh direct execution quotes for the traded contract. | Proxy, stale, unavailable, unsupported, not entitled, estimated. |
| Spread capture | Fresh direct bid/ask for the traded contract. | Missing bid/ask, zero/invalid spread, stale, proxy, estimated. |
| Forward P&L average | Available sourced forward marks and valid entry economics. | Pending, unavailable, stale, unsupported, estimated unless explicitly in an estimated-only view. |
| Hit rate | Available sourced outcomes with a defined success rule. | Pending, unavailable, estimated-only, unsupported. |
| Realized P&L | Approved realized-P&L source only. | Derived lifecycle cashflow, model estimates, terminal quote estimates, unavailable rows. |
| Copilot confidence | All relevant evidence may contribute as confidence inputs. | Missing evidence must reduce confidence or produce no decision, not count as neutral support. |
Minimum aggregate disclosure:
available_count
excluded_count
pending_count
unavailable_count
estimated_count
proxy_count
unsupported_count
not_entitled_count
Business Decision Register
| Decision | Proposed owner | Current status | Impact if unanswered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Authoritative execution quote source | Gordon / trading / market-data owner | Pending | Execution quality remains partial and source-gated. |
| Authoritative forward mark source | Gordon / operations / market-data owner | Pending | Forward P&L and hit rate remain partial. |
| Authoritative terminal or expiry mark source | Gordon / operations | Pending | Expired-before-horizon outcomes remain terminal-quote-labelled or unavailable. |
| Authoritative realized-P&L source | Operations / accounting / PMS owner | Pending | Realized P&L remains unavailable. |
Adjusted-contract authority for 2MSTR and 2COIN | Trading / operations / approved symbology source | Pending | Adjusted rows remain fallback-labelled, unavailable, or needs-review. |
| Proxy policy for SMA and OTC-like trades | Gordon / trading / Jamil / engineering | Pending | SMA ingestion can be specified, but not decision-grade. |
| Estimated/model mark display policy | Gordon / trading | Pending | Estimates remain excluded from sourced aggregates and should appear only in exploratory contexts. |
| Accident-avoidance confidence threshold | Gordon / trading | Pending | Warning taxonomy can be prepared, but strong warnings should remain deferred. |
| Release threshold for incomplete source coverage | Gordon / trading / operations | Pending | System can explain every gap, but release cannot be called decision-grade without threshold approval. |
Preparatory Implementation Notes
Before backend or UI enforcement begins, engineering can safely prepare:
- enum names for authority levels and quality states
- source metadata fields and API response shape
- aggregate denominator/exclusion metadata
- docs and tooltip wording for direct, proxy, estimated, stale, pending, unavailable, unsupported, and not-entitled states
- coverage diagnostics that attribute every missing value to a reason bucket
Engineering should not yet:
- treat model estimates as realized P&L
- promote adjusted-standard fallback rows to exact adjusted-contract coverage
- use BTC proxy liquidity as traded-contract execution liquidity
- include pending or unavailable rows in P&L/hit-rate denominators
- show strong copilot recommendations without approved confidence thresholds